Although facing a variety of unfavorable factors, global electric vehicle sales will continue to grow.
A few days ago, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released its Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook report, predicting that market penetration of electric vehicles is still growing. Rapidly declining battery prices, advances in next-generation battery technology, and improved economics of electric vehicles compared to fuel vehicles will support the long-term growth of global electric vehicle sales. Global passenger electric vehicle sales are forecast to exceed 30 million units in 2027, accounting for 33% of global vehicle sales, and grow to 73 million units by 2040, accounting for 73% of global vehicle sales.
The report finds that a lack of low-cost models and tensions in the EV market triggered by the upcoming presidential election have led to a slowdown in EV adoption in the U.S. this year, while in Europe, tough carbon emissions policies will be implemented in 2025, freeing automakers from pressure to significantly increase EV sales this year. But these factors of regulatory policy and political change are not holding back the growth of global EV sales.
There is “no doubt” that sales will continue to grow, but the rate of growth in the coming years will be significantly slower than in the past. It is predicted that global electric vehicle sales will grow at an average of 21% per year through 2027, much lower than the average growth rate of 61% from 2020 to 2023, and the share of global vehicle sales will jump from 17.8% in 2023 to 33% in 2027. By then, only China and Europe will have a higher share of EV sales than the global average, at 60% and 41%, respectively. Brazil’s electric vehicle sales will increase fivefold, and India’s electric vehicle sales will increase twofold.
The report notes that global electric vehicle ownership will reach 476 million in 2035 and increase to 722 million in 2040, accounting for 45% of vehicle ownership.
Specifically to the country, with the popularity of more low-cost electric vehicles, Thailand, India and Brazil and other countries to obtain record sales, electric vehicles are no longer exclusive to the rich countries, superimposed on the electrification technology continues to improve and the price of batteries decline, all the world’s automotive markets electric vehicle sales will be from the policy-driven to consumer demand-driven change. China’s position as the global leader in electric vehicles will remain unchanged.